What are the chances of a White Christmas in 2018 for Southern Ontario?
For many, a “white” Christmas is more than just a beautiful Christmas carol; it is the literal icing on the Christmas cake that brings extra joy and fun to the occasion. After all, what could be better than waking up on Christmas morning to a beautiful blanket of freshly fallen snow that adds that little bit extra to the festive flavour of the holiday?
For those of us in Southern Ontario, specifically the GTA, having snow on the ground on Christmas is in no way a certainty. In fact, according to the fine folks at The Weather Network, we have a 50% historical probability of snow at Christmas. Not exactly going out on a limb there, are they!
A little more research shows their projection for the week of Christmas to be within the normal seasonal range for daytime highs and lows, however, a glimmer of hope for snow exists with a predicted 1 cm snowfall on Christmas Eve. Whether it sticks on the ground or not is another story.
Meteorologist Brett Anderson, of AccuWeather, is equally hesitant to take a hard stand with his prediction, citing multiple long-range computer models to conclude that the weather around Christmas in the GTA will be “seasonal” with snow showers “possible”. In other words, the certainty of having snow on the ground is just a coin flip.
Maybe more “traditional” prognosticators will have a stronger opinion for the chances of a white Christmas. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is hinting that overall December will be 2ºc colder than normal (averaging -6ºc), precipitation a staggering 2cm (sarcasm alert) above average, and with a possibility of snow showers on or near Christmas. The only thing that seems certain at this point is uncertainty.
With even the storied Almanac hedging their bet for a white Christmas, where can we turn to for a more definitive answer about Christmas snow? Well, the brave people at willigetawhitechristmas.com are not afraid to make bold predictions regarding Christmas weather; in fact, it’s what they were created to do. At the time of writing, they are confidently predicting a 25% chance of a white Christmas for our region.
So there you have it; and if you are a betting person, you can confidently wager on having no snow on Christmas this year. Or maybe just a little bit. Possibly. Or possibly not. Who really knows? I know I don’t!